With the Osun governorship election just days away, the battle for control of the state has entered a critical phase, with the major contenders scrambling for every possible vote in key local government areas.
The contest has largely narrowed around incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) flagbearer, Dr Najeem Salaam.
While each candidate is expected to dominate certain traditional strongholds, the outcome may ultimately be determined by the council areas where none of the contenders has an overwhelming advantage.
Interestingly, all three leading candidates are from Osun West Senatorial District.
Adeleke and Salaam are both from the Ede North/Ede South/Egbedore/Ejigbo Federal Constituency, while Oyebamiji comes from the Irewole/Isokan/Ayedaade Federal Constituency.
After nearly four years in office, Adeleke is banking heavily on the projects executed by his administration to consolidate his support across the state.
His strongest base remains Ede, where he is expected to command substantial votes from both Ede North and Ede South.
Egbedore is also regarded as favourable territory for the governor, particularly because Bamidele Salam, the lawmaker representing his federal constituency, comes from the area.
The influence of Adeleke’s running mate, Kola Adewusi, and former PDP National Secretary, Prof Wale Oladipo, could equally give the governor an advantage in Ife Central, Ife East and Ife South.
But the governor may have to fight hard for those votes because Oyebamiji’s running mate, Benjamin Adereti, is also from Ile-Ife.
Another factor being watched closely is the position of former APC National Secretary, Senator Iyiola Omisore. Any strong support from him for Oyebamiji could alter the calculations in areas where Adeleke is currently considered competitive.
Beyond his established strongholds, Adeleke’s political machinery has also made significant moves in Ifelodun, Ila, Oriade, Iwo, Ifedayo, Orolu and Olaoluwa.
Iwo, in particular, could become an important battleground for the governor because of the backing of former Osun Secretary to the State Government, Moshood Adeoti, who is from the town.
However, Adeleke could face resistance in the Iwo Federal Constituency from Dr Amin Ogunbiyi, the APC senatorial candidate for the 2027 election, whose political influence may affect the governor’s calculations.
Osogbo: Three-Way Fight
Osogbo, the state capital, could produce a major surprise as all three leading candidates are expected to make substantial gains in the two local government areas that make up the capital.
The Ataoja of Osogbo, Oba Jimoh Oyetunji, has openly backed Adeleke, giving the governor a significant traditional institution behind him.
But the APC is not leaving the capital to chance.
APC National Secretary, Senator Ajibola Basiru, and the party’s 2027 senatorial candidate, Adekunle Adegoke (SAN), are reportedly pushing into areas regarded as Adeleke’s strongholds.
Salaam is also expected to make a serious showing in Osogbo and Olorunda, relying partly on the enduring political influence of former governor Rauf Aregbesola, who still commands a considerable following in the area.
Oyebamiji’s Strongholds
For Oyebamiji, the Irewole/Isokan/Ayedaade Federal Constituency remains one of the major pillars of his campaign.
His chances are strengthened by the influence of former governorship aspirant Dotun Babayemi, who is from Gbongan, one of the major towns in the constituency.
The APC candidate is also looking towards Odo Otin, where the political alliance involving the faction of the PDP led by former governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola could prove decisive.
However, the presence of House of Assembly Speaker Wale Egbedun in the political equation may make the contest far less straightforward for the APC.
Oyebamiji also has strong prospects in Boluwaduro and Boripe, the home base of Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Adegboyega Oyetola.
Irepodun, Ife North and Obokun are also regarded as areas where the APC candidate could perform strongly.
Obokun is particularly important because it is the home local government of Senator Francis Fadahunsi, who represents Osun East in the Senate.
In Atakunmosa East and Atakunmosa West, APC lawmaker Sanya Omirin is expected to deploy his political structure in support of Oyebamiji.
However, the APC candidate may encounter resistance in Ilesa East, where Aregbesola’s influence remains a major factor.
Aregbesola, a former governor of the state, is from Ilesa East and his continued popularity could affect the APC’s calculations.
In Ilesa West, meanwhile, the APC campaign has been driven prominently by Remi Omowaiye, Executive Director, Project Implementation, Federal Housing Authority.
The APC appears to have a stronger footing in the area, making Ilesa West another council area closely watched by the rival camps.
Salaam’s Dark-Horse Factor
Although the race has largely been framed as a battle between Adeleke and Oyebamiji, Salaam cannot be dismissed.
Apart from Ejigbo, where he comes from, the ADC candidate could spring surprises in Ilesa East, Osogbo and Olorunda.
His eight-year tenure as Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly has given him political contacts across the state.
Salaam is also regarded as a political heir to Aregbesola, whose support base remains relevant in several parts of Osun.
However, that association could be both an advantage and a burden, as Salaam also carries some of the controversies and political baggage associated with his former political mentor.
The 10 Battleground LGAs
- Osogbo
The state capital is shaping up as a major three-way contest. Adeleke has the backing of the Ataoja, while APC heavyweights are working to cut into the governor’s support base. Salaam, meanwhile, is counting on Aregbesola’s influence to remain competitive.
- Olorunda
Olorunda presents another closely fought contest. Adeleke has traditional support in his corner, the APC is deploying its political heavyweights, while Salaam hopes Aregbesola’s network will give him a strong foothold.
- Ife Central
Adeleke is expected to benefit from the influence of his deputy, Kola Adewusi, and former PDP National Secretary Wale Oladipo. But Oyebamiji’s running mate, Benjamin Adereti, being from Ile-Ife could give the APC a powerful local advantage.
- Ife East
Like Ife Central, Ife East could witness a serious battle between the governor and the APC candidate. Adeleke’s political structure is strong in the area, but Adereti’s connection to Ile-Ife could help Oyebamiji close the gap.
- Ife South
The governor is expected to perform well in Ife South, but the APC is also working to exploit its local structures and the influence of Oyebamiji’s running mate.
- Odo Otin
Odo Otin could become one of the election’s biggest surprises. Oyebamiji has the Oyinlola factor working in his favour, while Speaker Wale Egbedun’s presence could make the APC’s expected advantage less certain.
- Ilesa East
Oyebamiji has a strong local connection in Ilesa East, but Aregbesola’s influence could complicate the APC candidate’s plans. Salaam is also expected to remain competitive in the area.
- Iwo
Adeleke enters the Iwo contest with the support of Moshood Adeoti, giving the governor an important political ally. But APC’s Amin Ogunbiyi could pose a serious challenge and make the battle far tighter than expected.
- Osun East/Ilesa axis
The wider Ilesa axis remains crucial to the APC’s calculations, particularly with party structures and prominent figures such as Sanya Omirin working to strengthen Oyebamiji’s position. However, the influence of Aregbesola and the presence of Salaam could prevent an easy APC victory.
- Ejigbo
Ejigbo remains an important constituency for Salaam because it is his home local government. While Adeleke also has strong roots within the federal constituency, Salaam’s personal political network could give him a significant advantage and make Ejigbo one of the areas to watch on election day.
The Big Battle
With Adeleke relying on incumbency, projects and his established political base, and Oyebamiji counting on the APC structure and a network of influential political figures, the race is unlikely to be decided solely in their traditional strongholds.
Salaam’s presence adds another layer of uncertainty.
The crucial question on election day may therefore not be who dominates the known strongholds, but who succeeds in breaking into the opponent’s territory and taking the biggest share of votes from the closely contested local government areas.
For Adeleke and Oyebamiji, the fight for these battleground councils could ultimately determine who emerges with the keys to Osun Government House.
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